Arthur Hayes KBW Speech: Embracing Bitcoin's "Million-Dollar" Era
10-07 , 20:06
On September 23, Arthur Hayes attended the Korea KBW 2025 Summit in person and delivered a keynote speech. His keynote speech outlined the potential future of "Money Printer Go Brrr" in the United States and analyzed its historical roots, political driving factors, and the specific mechanisms that could be realized. He also mentioned why we as crypto investors should care about these issues.
Arthur Hayes emphasized the comparison between the price of Bitcoin's surge during the pandemic and the scale of credit expansion at the time. In 2028, the price of one Bitcoin is approximately $3.4 million. Although this number seems absurd, the "million-dollar" era of Bitcoin is approaching. The following is the full text of Arthur Hayes' speech:
Alright, this will get a bit technical, talking about who votes on what and such. But I think it's crucial to understand where we currently stand on America's path towards the ultimate money printer go brrr. This actually started with Donald Trump's election and the appointment of a treasury secretary, whom I call "Buffalo Bill." But they haven't fully arrived yet. They are sending all the right signals, with the mainstream financial media talking about how bad Trump is, like him calling Jerome Powell "Too Late Man" every day on the social platform (Truth Social).
But fundamentally, the Fed has permanently cut interest rates, which is nice, but they could have done more. How do we get to madness? How do we get Bitcoin to a million or more, where any shitcoin in your portfolio can increase by 100x without a leader, revenue, or customers? I know that's what you want me to talk about.
How do we get there? It starts with understanding how the Fed votes, which committee is responsible for what, and how we move towards the eventual yield curve control denouement. That's why this article I published after stepping down and the subsequent speech will discuss these things. So, to understand where we are heading, let's go back to history because history foretells the future.
Let's go back to the 1940s. What was happening then? There was a world war. The US got involved in 1942. Obviously, when you're in war, what do you do? You print a lot of money. How do you do it? You tell the central bank to lower the price of money and increase its quantity so that the central government can outbid everyone, borrow money to make killing things. So, how did the US government finance its participation in WWII?
The Federal Reserve has essentially come to an agreement with the Treasury Department to manipulate the bond market, allowing the U.S. government to issue debt at an extremely low cost. This is a photo of a Tuskegee pilot. They were getting ready to go into battle, to buy war bonds. What was the bond rate at that time? For almost a decade, the rate on Treasury bills with maturities of less than a year was capped at 0.375%. In long-term Treasuries, the rate on 10 to 25-year bonds was capped at 2.5%. This is the U.S. yield curve control.